Rookie STEALS & sleepers.
What is a STEAL?
In Fantasy, a “steal” is a player who is likely to outperform Average Draft Position, or ADP. To find ADP numbers, we analyze a collection of drafts and average them out so that the ADP can provide you with a rough idea of where a player might be drafted. The lower a person’s ADP, the more likely they are to slip down a draft board, allowing you to find a “steal”.
What is a SLEEPER?
A "sleeper" is a player who is not being valued properly and finds themselves much lower on draft boards than we think they should be. Sleepers are usually later picks who you believe can vastly outperform the expectations of their draft spot.
These two terms are often interchangeable, and will be used in this way throughout this article. This article uses ADP Data pulled from a dozen rookie drafts that took place over the last two weeks. For this article, my “steals” and “sleepers” are all players with an ADP outside the top 20.
Sidy Cissoko, G/F, San Antonio Spurs (ADP: 31.5)
Despite a productive season with the G-League Ignite, Sidy Cissoko slipped to the 44th pick on draft night, where he was selected by San Antonio. Cissoko’s game is reminiscent of fellow Spur Jeremy Sochan, the 12th pick in the 2022 draft. Cissoko, like Sochan, can handle the ball effectively and at times, facilitate the offense by creating for others. Sidy also has the tools to be a lockdown, versatile defender in the future due to his combination of strength and length. Cissoko’s rawness on the offensive end played a role in his draft slide, however at just 19 years old, Cissoko has plenty of time to improve and he can do so on a Spurs team lauded for their player development.
Timeline:
The Spurs, despite having landed a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama, are still deep in the middle of a rebuild. Their timeline will give Cissoko ample opportunity to develop but dynasty teams looking to add Cissoko will need to exercise patience.
Landing Spot:
As mentioned earlier, the Spurs have an incredible history of developing players. While their renowned shooting coach left last offseason, Cissoko still lands in a place where he can develop his weaknesses and be put in a position to succeed.
Capital:
Cissoko was drafted in the middle of the 2nd round this year. This draft capital does not inspire a TON of confidence, especially since he received first-round buzz leading into the draft; however, as mentioned earlier, at least he was drafted by a team who has a history of investing in their 2nd round picks.
Nick Smith Jr., G, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 27.5)
Initially projected as a top-5 pick, Nick Smith Jr.’s lackluster freshman year at Arkansas caused him to tumble down draft boards. In recent showings at Summer League however, Smith has been reminding people who he is. In a game against the Portland Trail Blazers, Smith poured in 33 points and flashed slippery handles, smooth footwork, and the ability to score from all levels. It is important to take Summer League games with a grain of salt, but it is exciting to see the formerly hyped prospect returning to form. If he continues to string together similar performances, I doubt that his ADP remains this low.
Timeline:
Charlotte was a lottery team this past year, but they are far from rebuilding. Their poor performance was a result of their star player, LaMelo Ball, being plagued with injuries throughout the year. This year, the Hornets not only sport a healthy LaMelo, but they also welcome in the 2nd overall pick Brandon Miller and the returning Miles Bridges. You can expect this Hornets team to spend next season attempting to fight for a playoff spot and as a result, Smith will need to string together consistently impactful performances to crack the rotation. For prospective Dynasty GMs, Smith would fit best on teams in the middle of a rebuild or are pivoting towards contention, as he’s somewhat of a boom-or-bust player.
Landing Spot:
With Dennis Smith Jr. leaving, there is an opportunity for bench minutes on the playoff hopeful Hornets. LaMelo’s injury history could also lead to further opportunities. Smith will need to battle for those minutes, though, as there are a ton of young guards fighting for a spot in the rotation. An important thing to note is that Smith was AAU teammates with Brandon Miller, and their chemistry could help Smith get an edge.
Capital:
Late 1st rounders typically come with tempered expectations; however, it’s important to note how DEEP this draft class was. This late in the first, it makes sense for the Hornets to roll the dice on Smith’s upside.
Jalen Pickett, G, Denver Nuggets (ADP: 38.8)
Jalen Pickett, the 32nd overall pick this year, did a little bit of everything for Penn State, averaging 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. The momentum he built during his senior year has carried over into his time with the Denver Nuggets, where he was reportedly a camp standout. On a Denver team that lost much of its depth over the offseason, Pickett's NBA-ready game and college experience should help him become an instant contributor. His ability to contribute all over the box score can help him find fantasy success as well.
Timeline:
The Nuggets will look to defend their championship next season without some key contributors like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who have left in free agency. Knowing that the cap crunch was in their future, the Nuggets made moves to acquire draft picks this year with the intention of the acquired players being able to make an instant impact. Pickett, a five-year college player, has the maturity and skillset to contribute from day one. Likewise, Pickett is a sneaky pickup for contending Dynasty teams looking to add a cheap, yet valuable, asset late during rookie drafts.
Landing Spot:
See above…
Capital:
Pickett was drafted 32nd overall. As mentioned earlier, second round picks often don’t inspire a lot of confidence however with Denver sorely needing depth and production from the bench, you can feel good about this pick. He’s not the most exciting prospect and is constantly overlooked because of his age, but that’s exactly why he’s a sleeper. Like with the Nuggets, he can give your team quiet but consistent production.
Jordan Walsh, F, Boston Celtics (ADP: 41.8)
Another victim of a poorly constructed Arkansas Razorbacks squad, Walsh salvaged his draft stock after testing incredibly well during the NBA Combine. Walsh not only showcased tremendous physical gifts, standing at nearly 6’6” with close to a 7’2” wingspan, but high-end athleticism as well.
Coming into the draft, Jordan was heralded for his upside as a versatile defender, especially after locking down Jalen Wilson during the NCAA tournament and as seen thus far in Summer League, Walsh also has upside as a shooter. With proper development, Walsh could carve out a role as 3-and-D player on a Celtics team that is a perennial playoff lock. In category leagues, Walsh is especially enticing for his ability to rack up defensive stats and hit 3s.
Timeline:
Despite falling short in recent years, the Celtics have the talent and star power to continuously push for a spot in the finals, especially after adding Kristaps Porzingis. Walsh is young, but he does have the skillset to make an impact for a contending team. He may be on the outside looking in this year, though, unless his outside shot proves to be consistent.
Landing Spot:
The Celtics added Kristaps Porzingis this year but parted ways with Marcus Smart and Grant Williams, who both played important roles, especially on the defensive end. Defense is where Walsh can shine the most, especially early on. On a team laden with shooters and playmakers, Walsh’s affinity for cutting towards the rim should also help him thrive.
Capital:
The 38th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Walsh was given a four-year contract. Even if the draft capital is not exactly inspiring, the Celtics’ investment in him is.