Rookie rant: JARACE WALKER & TAYLOR HENDRICKS.
Should we be worried about Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks?
It’s rare for a top 10 pick to find themselves out of the rotation to start the season, it’s even rarer for it to happen with two top 10 picks in the same class, but here we are with Jarace Walker (8th pick) and Taylor Hendricks (9th pick). Should we be worried? Is it time to panic and extract whatever value we can find?
To find our answer, we’ve got to take a closer look at each of their individual situations. Let’s start with Jarace, who immediately walked into a talent squeeze in Indiana. The Pacers were always going to have a challenge on their hands splitting minutes between the likes of Mathurin, Toppin, Brown, Nembhard, Jackson, Nwora, Smith, Nesmith, and Jarace Walker. Obviously not all these players can fit into the rotation and as such the Pacers must carefully evaluate, and manage these assets in order to extract maximum value for each one.
Jarace has spent most of the season in the G League, having only appeared in 4 contests for the Pacers, in which he’s averaging 4.3 points, 2 rebounds, 1.5 assists and half a steal and block each in just over 10 minutes per game.While these are mediocre averages, it’s not like he’s been Johnny Davis levels of bad so what gives? Why are the Pacers playing Isaiah Jackson, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith and Jordan Nwora over their prized top 10 selection?
There are a few key factors to look at here, most prominently at this point in time might be the standings, with a record of 11-8 to start this season the Pacers find themselves 6th in the East, a big jump for a team who just picked in the top 10. While Jarace might be their PF of the future, like most rookies he may also not represent the best chance of winning on a nightly basis this early in his career.
He could spend more time with the big boys, and continue the marginalised role he’s played thus far, but it appears Indiana have opted to get him reps as a featured option in the G League instead, while allowing guys like Nwora, Smith and Toppin to showcase their ability to play a role on a winning team, boosting their value for a potential midseason trade or two by the deadline, which could then open the door for the 8th pick.
So should we panic on Jarace? On the basis of talent and roster squeeze, current NBA standings and proper asset management I would empathically say NO. There are factors at play here that make the optics of an 8th pick not playing far less worrying after a deep dive. With all this in mind, my evaluation on Walker has remained unchanged, but can we say the same for 9th pick Taylor Hendricks and his tenure to date with the Utah Jazz?
The talent squeeze bears some similarities to what we looked at with the Pacers as the Jazz are certainly loaded with talent and most of the forward minutes going to the likes of Lauri Markannen, John Collins and Kelly Olynyk, however outside of those names the Jazz lack the same depth of direct competition for forward minutes we saw in Indiana, with Simone Fonteccio, Luka Samanic and Brice Sensabaugh the only other players that could slide into those spots, the latter of which has appeared in a singular contest for the big club, which is only one less than Hendricks at this point in time. In his only 2 outings, Hendricks has posted averages of 3 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1 block on poor shooting numbers in 10 minutes per game.
When we take a look at the standings, we see a distinct difference to what’s going on in Indiana. The Jazz 7-13 record is only good for 12th in the West, which is not exactly a position that forces management's hand in regard to making win now moves over developing future talent.
While we are seeing the talent squeeze impact guys like Hendricks in Utah, as well as Walker and even the 6th pick in 2022 Bennedict Mathurin back in Indiana, we aren’t seeing the same with Keyonte George, the 16th pick in the 2023 class for Utah. Keyonte’s role is increasing and deservedly so. It appears that Utah are prioritising their young guard despite another logjam at that position for Utah. This begs the question of why Hendricks isn’t being prioritised in the same way? Maybe it’s because Keyonte, despite his age, actually does currently present Utah with their best chance at winning each night unlike Hendricks.
One big similarity to the Jarace Walker situation seems to be asset management, with Collins and Olynyk both sneaky candidates to be on new teams by the deadline, should their play drum up interest around the league, there is incentive for the front office to feature them and maximise their value in any potential trade.
So is it time to panic on Taylor Hendricks? I’ll preface this by saying I am NOT a Hendricks guy and haven’t been throughout the draft process, however this array of circumstances hasn’t changed my pre draft evaluation of the guy, and it shouldn’t change anybody’s who was high on him either.
Simply put, it’s too early to panic, it's too early to toss our pre draft evaluations out the window, doubly so when the circumstances surrounding these rookies doesn’t parallel the usual situation a top 10 pick finds themselves in. For now we must give both guys the benefit of the doubt, exercise patience and continue to operate under our pre draft assumptions to an extent.