Point Made Presents:
3 Tips to Nail Your Rookie Draft, All it Takes is a Little T.L.C...
TIMELINE.
Whether you are contending, tanking, or pivoting between the two, timeline plays an important role in evaluating players for Fantasy Basketball. As a contender, especially in Salary Cap or Contract leagues, securing rookies who are ready to compete from day one is especially important. A day one contributor bolsters your title shot and maximizes your contending window. On the other hand, if you are tanking or rebuilding, it’s important to look for ceiling raisers, or players with high-end contributor or star potential. Securing a steady day one contributor with a high floor is valuable, but it won’t help you claw your way out of the lottery. As a tanker, it is easier to bet on upside or swing for the fences because you inherently have higher risk tolerance. Additionally, if your contention window is still a few years away, your timeline will allow you to take on high-risk, high-reward projects that others are less likely to bet on, making your big board look much different than others’. Prior to creating your big board, determining whether you are rebuilding, pivoting, or contending is incredibly important, as it plays a crucial role into how you should evaluate these prospects.
LANDING SPOT.
In fantasy sports, a common trope is valuing talent over landing spot. While this especially pertains to fantasy football, it’s very much applicable to fantasy basketball as well. In fantasy basketball, landing spots can have a big impact on a player’s value, both in the short and long-term For example, if a high-risk, high-reward project lands on a team with good developmental history, I’d feel comfortable picking him over safer players within the same tier, especially if my team is currently rebuilding and has good risk tolerance. Similarly, if a player lands on a team where he will play a significant role from day one, it would positively impact his value and, thus, move him up my board.
On the other hand, landing spot can negatively impact a player’s value, too. In this year, the immensely talented Anthony Black, whom I had ranked 5th going into the draft, landed with the Orlando Magic, who already roster a plethora of guards and ball handlers. While I believe in Black’s long-term value, his landing spot will negatively impact his short-term value, unless the Magic move one of their guards. Landing spot can immensely impact a player’s value, and it should play a big role in how you evaluate a player on draft day; however, if you find yourself struggling to decide between two players, it’s important to remember that landing spot only tells a fraction of the story.
CAPITAL.
Draft Capital alludes to how early a player is selected. Historically speaking, the earlier a player is selected, the more likely that player will go on to succeed. The further down a draft board you go, the harder it becomes to secure a player who will play a meaningful role for your fantasy team. With draft capital comes longer leashes. When a team heavily invests in a player, that player is given the leeway to make mistakes in order to grow and reach their potential. In a points league, this is incredibly important to consider, as inefficiency doesn’t negatively impact the format like in category leagues. Bilal Coulibaly is a recent example. While extremely raw, his upside is tremendous, and he will be given ample opportunity to showcase that upside on a Wizards team committed to a rebuild. Conversely, players who are drafted later are often relegated to smaller roles, barring massive improvements or surprising growth. A lack of a defined role on an NBA team leads to a lack of fantasy value. Additionally, it is easier for teams to cut ties with players that they had only made marginal investments into.
While draft capital is incredibly important, it’s not everything. It is important to remember that some players are better in real life than in fantasy, players such as three point or defensive specialists can have big real-world impact but minimal fantasy value. Considering a player’s skillset is just as important as considering how early that player is drafted. Additionally, as shown by the reigning Finals MVP, a star can be found later in the draft, too, even if earlier picks are more historically successful.
By Josh.