DYNASTY : BUY LOWS & SELL HIGHS.
What does it mean to Sell High?
Selling high means trading a player who you think is peaking at a level that isn’t sustainable for whatever reason and whose value might drop soon. Selling high is somewhat risky, as there is a chance that the player maintains their value or that the value you receive fails to deliver; however, selling high is a way for savvy GMs to squeeze out every ounce of value from an asset at its peak.
What does it mean to Buy Low?
Buying low is seeking out players who are being undervalued, such as those coming off of down years or young players who have not been given significant minutes yet. Buying low is an opportunity for GMs to get ahead of the curve by securing an asset that they believe has room to grow. An example of buying low would be securing Jalen Brunson prior to coming to New York, where there were worries about his ability to fit into the Knicks’ offense. Brunson has since become the first option on a blossoming Knicks squad.
At the end of the day, Dynasty Teams are supposed to be FUN, and we encourage you to have as much fun as you can while constructing your version of a championship contender.
Sell High:
Jalen Williams, G, Oklahoma City Thunder (Josh)
Before you burn me at the stake, I want to identify myself as a huge JDub fan. During the 2022 draft process, I loved the versatility that JDub brought to the game. His ability to contribute throughout the box scores translates beautifully into Fantasy Basketball, and his role on the Thunder as an efficient scorer and connective wing is cemented; however, Jalen William’s tremendous rookie season has provided GMs with an opportunity to capitalize on his popularity.
The Thunder are not only adding another ball handler in rookie Cason Wallace to a team that already has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, but also Chet Holmgren, who is fully healed after missing his rookie season and who will be taking up a bunch of usage.
The Thunder will, once again, be knocking on the door of the playoffs, with JDub playing a big role; however, with so many talented players sharing the ball, how much more can JDub improve statistically? This is a question GMs need to ask themselves before deciding whether or not to capitalize on the highly hyped young star.
Lauri Markkanen, F, Utah Jazz (Evan)
Lauri had an unbelievable season in Utah and as a result the 26 year old’s fantasy value has skyrocketed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a believer in Utah Lauri and think he’s got a number of really strong years ahead of him in his career and for Fantasy, however we need to have a look at what it was that shot him so far up the rankings and ask ourselves ‘how sustainable is this’?
A lot of Lauri’s jump can be attributed to a new role as the man in Utah as he saw his usage rise from 19.5 during his 1 season in Cleveland all the way up to 26.6 in Utah. While the Jazz look to have picked up some strong rookies through the draft this season, I think in the immediate term, at least for this coming season, Lauri’s usage is likely to stay around the same level as this past season. So is the usage sustainable? For now, I think so.
The other main factor in Lauri’s jump was a surprising leap in efficiency across the board. Lauri shot 49.9% from the field this season compared to 44.1% across his first 5 seasons. He also shot a career best 39.1% from 3 compared to 36.4% across his first 5 seasons and overall Lauri had a career high true shooting number of 64% compared to 57% in his first 5 years.
While I don’t think Lauri’s efficiency will drop back down to the levels of his first 5 years, I do look at his shooting stats from this season and think that they are unlikely to be sustainable at those levels. It’s important to remember being a sell-high does not mean you must sell. It just means you should check the market. If someone is willing to give up a haul for Lauri or a top 25 dynasty asset for him? Now is the time to pull the trigger.
Victor Wembanyama, F/C, San Antonio Spurs (Evan)
Woah woah woah, easy now, put those pitchforks down. That reaction you just had to seeing Wemby listed as a sell high candidate is exactly the reason you should explore what you might be able to trade him for. The hype around Wemby as a fantasy asset is, like the man himself, generational.
I personally believe Wemby is a clear cut top 5 dynasty asset right now, and probably even top 3. BUT… it's entirely possible, maybe even probable, that the hype means that his value in dynasty leagues at this moment is the highest it will be for a few years while he figures out how to dominate the league.
I think it would be foolish to not at the very least, let your league know that you’re open to dealing Wemby for the right price. People are clamoring to get their hands on this guy and if you can sell him for another top 5 dynasty asset plus strong additional value, or multiple top 10/15 assets, you’ve got to at least think about it, because I’m not convinced the offers you get for him today, will be there come December.
BUY LOW:
Jalen Green, G, Houston Rockets (Josh)
Jalen Green has developed the reputation of an inefficient chucker, which, in my opinion, is not only undeserved but an oversimplification of an extremely talented young player. To his doubter’s credit, Green has been far from efficient thus far into his NBA career, where he has averaged 42% from the field, but I expect this number to trend upwards now that he is playing with better playmakers (Fred Van Vleet and Amen Thompson) and in a more calculated offensive scheme under new coach Ime Udoka.
After last year’s All-Star break, Green averaged 23.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists all at the age of 21. Keep in mind, this was on an offense with a makeshift point guard and on a team without a clear direction or identity. The Rockets have made a meaningful effort to build culture by adding veteran leaders at positions that do not clash with Green’s, highlighting the Franchise’s commitment towards him as their cornerstone.
After this season kicks off, it will become more and more difficult to acquire Green, whom I project to have a similar third-year leap to Anthony Edwards and to become one of the premier young scorers in the league. Get ahead of the curve and get him while you can.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets (Josh)
When healthy, LaMelo is undoubtedly one of the most prized assets in Dynasty basketball in both Points and Category Leagues. In fact, I’d argue that a LaMelo without injury concerns would break into the top 5 of my rankings. The only reason he made it onto this list is because of his inability to stay healthy.
A lot of fears around LaMelo’s injuries seem tied to big brother Lonzo, who’s ongoing knee issues have unfortunately left his career in jeopardy. It’s important to remember that despite the fact they are brothers, their injuries are nothing alike. While Lonzo’s knees look to be heading down the degenerative path seen before with the likes of Brandon Roy, LaMelo’s recent run with injuries have involved ankle sprains that don’t require surgery and a bone break. None of LaMelo’s injuries or recoveries are likely to lead to ongoing problems, unlike Lonzo and his multiple knee surgeries. Remember that time a young Steph Curry was plagued with ‘career long ankle injuries’?
With the Hornets adding #2 overall pick Brandon Miller and welcoming back Miles Bridges, LaMelo will look to lead his team back into playoff contention, so, while there may still be concerns about the team resting him, the likelihood that he is shutdown without substantial injuries is very low.
During the offseason, there are plenty of opportunities to capitalize on the “bad taste" leftover from missing LaMelo for huge chunks of the past season. In one of my leagues, I was able to trade Brandon Ingram, Jalen Brunson, and the #12th Overall Pick for LaMelo Ball and the #9th overall pick.
Karl Anthony-Towns, F/C, Minnesota Timberwolves (Evan)
This one hurts to write. Ask around the Point Made team and the fantasy leagues we run and you’ll quickly realise I am not a fan of the big KAT and recently even fleeced myself to get him off one of my rosters for the sake of my own mental wellbeing. I just can’t stand the cringe.
But for you, I can put all that aside and be professional here, and there’s no denying that KAT is absolutely a buy low. There are 4 major things going on contributing to this buy low that we need to examine.
Firstly, the ongoing emergence of a potential superstar guard in Anthony Edwards who is taking usage and claim as ‘the guy’ for Minnesota away from Towns. Second, the injuries that ruined KAT’s season. Third, the strange pairing with Gobert and an ever crowded Timberwolves frontcourt. Fourth and finally, the cringe factor… a lot of people just don’t want to roster the guy.
I don’t think Karl ever gets back to the top 6 or 7 fantasy seasons that we’ve seen in the past but even with all of those factors clashing together in the one season, the 27 year old was still a top 30 producer on a per game basis in 9 category leagues.
Next season, when the injuries are behind him and he gets a chance to get used to playing alongside another big man in Gobert, don’t be surprised to see KAT jump back up into a top 15/20 producer in 9 cat leagues. His value is likely at the lowest point it will be for a few years this offseason. If you can stomach the cringe, now is the time to take the plunge.
Disclaimer: Seeing someone as a buy low or a sell high does not mean you HAVE to sell or buy them. It just means there are factors at play that might make now the right time to make a move. If you push too hard to buy low or sell high you might negate the actual value by giving up too much or getting back too little. Check the market and gauge current value in your leagues, don’t force it.